KENYA – The Rockefeller Foundation has released a new report revealing a staggering ‘Green Power Gap’ of 8,700 terawatt-hours (TWh) across 72 countries, more than half of which are in Africa and nearly a quarter in Asia.
This gap represents the urgent need for these nations to deploy clean energy by 2050. It’s a transition from traditional, costly, and inefficient power systems to a future of energy abundance that cannot wait.
The required clean power is not just a number, it’s a staggering amount, approximately twice the United States’ annual energy generation.
The report, ‘The Green Power Gap: Achieving an Energy Abundant Future for Everyone’, also identifies a unique window of opportunity and outlines four pathways to close the gap.
Dr. Rajiv J. Shah, President of The Rockefeller Foundation, emphasized the significance of this challenge, stating, “The fate of 3.8 billion people’s lives and the planet itself will depend on whether we can close the Green Power Gap.
“History clarifies that people and countries will pursue opportunity regardless of the climate consequences.
“The only way to achieve the world’s climate goals is by scaling solutions and mobilizing the capital needed to ensure 3.8 billion people have enough clean electricity to lift up their lives and livelihoods.”
The report analyzes 72 countries, 68 of which fall below the Modern Energy Minimum (MEM)—defined as an annual per capita usage of less than 1,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh), which is necessary to lift people out of poverty, create jobs, and drive economic development.
Four additional countries are included in the “energy-poor” category despite surpassing the MEM threshold because significant portions of their populations still live well below this standard.
Of the 72 countries identified, 44 are in Africa, including nations like Angola, Kenya, Nigeria, and Tanzania. The remaining countries are distributed across Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean, with a few in the Middle East.
William Asiko, Vice President and head of The Rockefeller Foundation’s Africa Regional Office, highlighted the disparity in energy access, stating, “While an energy transition is already taking hold in many advanced and emerging markets, far too many people in Africa are being left behind.
“The good news is that we are seeing big and bold ambitions emerge, such as the recent commitment by the World Bank and the African Development Bank to electrify 300 million Africans by 2030.
“These kinds of commitments, coupled with Africa’s superior renewable energy resources, present a unique opportunity for the continent to create diverse, flexible, and reliable renewable energy systems. Quantifying the Green Power Gap is an important step towards collective action.”
The Green Power Gap was calculated by determining the allowable carbon emissions to keep global temperatures below 1.75°C, while accounting for population growth and development goals.
The report assumes that the 55 “advanced” and 66 “emerging” countries will achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and 2060, respectively.
Under this scenario, the remaining carbon budget of 207 gigatons (GT) allows room for the 72 “energy-poor” countries to grow.
While fossil fuel generation can moderately increase in the near term, green power must become dominant by 2040, with net-zero emissions by 2070.
The report outlines four distinct pathways to closing the Green Power Gap, each tailored to the resources and needs of individual countries.
The ‘Gradual Grid Greening’ pathway is suited for nations like India that already have developed grids and centralized fossil fuel generation assets. It allows them to transition gradually to greener energy sources.
The ‘Mixed Grid Renewable Evolution’ pathway is recommended for countries like Nigeria, which have limited grid and generation capacity but higher population density, making a mixed approach to renewable energy more feasible.
‘Decentralized Solar Storage’ is ideal for countries like Burkina Faso, where excellent solar resources are available, but grid development is limited, making decentralized solar solutions the most practical option.
Lastly, the ‘Decentralized Renewable Mix’ pathway is appropriate for countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, which have diverse, high-quality renewable resources but lack extensive grid infrastructure, necessitating a varied and decentralized approach to renewable energy deployment.
Sign up to receive our email newsletters with the latest news updates and insights from Africa and the World HERE
