Plastics threaten millions of healthy life years – Lancet study warns

KENYA – Plastics are emerging as a major and under-recognized driver of global disease, with a new study published in The Lancet Planetary Health warning that current plastic production, use and disposal practices could cost humanity an estimated 83 million healthy years of life if left unchanged.

The research projects that annual health impacts linked to plastics, measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), could more than double from 2.1 million in 2016 to 4.5 million by 2040.

Over the full study period, this would translate into a cumulative loss of 83 million healthy life years, underscoring plastics as both an environmental and public health crisis.

The study is the first to quantify health impacts across the entire plastics life cycle. Researchers found that approximately 40% of the projected disease burden would be driven by rising temperatures linked to plastics-related greenhouse gas emissions, nearly one-third by air pollution, and more than a quarter by exposure to toxic chemicals.

Plastics, which are derived primarily from fossil fuels, emit harmful gases and hazardous substances at every stage of their life cycle, from oil and gas extraction and polymer production to manufacturing, transportation, recycling, waste management and eventual environmental degradation.

These emissions contribute to climate change, respiratory illnesses, cancers and other noncommunicable diseases, highlighting that plastics pose risks far beyond their immediate consumer use.

The findings are particularly relevant for Africa, where plastic pollution is intensifying amid rapid urbanization and weak waste management systems.

Plastics account for an estimated 13% of municipal solid waste across the continent, yet only about 4% is recycled.

The remainder frequently ends up in open dumps, waterways and informal landfills, increasing exposure to air pollutants, contaminated water and toxic emissions from open burning.

In Kenya and other fast-growing economies, the combination of rising plastic consumption and limited recycling infrastructure has heightened concerns over long-term health and environmental impacts.

Industry experts warn that without upstream interventions, such as reducing unnecessary plastic production and improving product design, downstream waste management solutions alone will be insufficient.

The study also highlights significant data gaps that hinder effective policymaking. Inconsistent reporting and limited disclosure of chemical compositions by manufacturers restrict the ability of life cycle assessments to fully capture health risks and guide regulation.

“Systemic change is needed across the entire plastics value chain to safeguard people and the planet,” the report concluded, adding to mounting global pressure for stricter plastics regulation, improved transparency and accelerated shifts toward circular and low-impact material systems.

As governments negotiate global and regional plastics policies, the study reinforces growing calls from health, environmental and industry stakeholders to address plastics not only as a waste issue, but as a critical determinant of public health.

Subscribe to our email newsletters that provide busy executives like you with the latest news insights and trends from Africa and the World. SUBSCRIBE HERE