South Africa’s 2030 decarbonization target in jeopardy, warns Presidential Climate Commission

SOUTH AFRICA – The Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) report warns that South Africa may fail to meet its 2030 decarbonization target due to a decision to delay decommissioning three aged coal power stations.

This delay is contingent upon introducing new clean energy sources as outlined in the country’s electricity generation roadmap.

The warning is detailed in the commission’s inaugural ‘South African State of Climate Action’ report, released on July 25.

Ahead of COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, South Africa submitted a new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to reduce CO2-equivalent (CO2-eq) emissions to between 420 million and 350 million tons by 2030, an improvement from its previous target range of 398 million to 510 million CO2-eq tons.

This commitment helped South Africa secure initial pledges of US$8.5 billion for its Just Energy Transition Investment Plan, which has since increased to US$11.5 billion.

The PCC report quotes the government’s draft Sectoral Emissions Target Report, which states that South Africa is on track to meet its 2025 NDC target and that the 350 million CO2-eq tonnes target could be achieved with more ambitious actions in the electricity and transport sectors.

Achieving the 350 million CO2-eq tons target aligns with South Africa’s contribution to limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, an increasingly challenging goal.

However, the report cautions that if key policies, such as the 2019 Integrated Resource Plan with its prescribed electricity build and decommissioning plans, still need to be met, the 2030 target may be unattainable.

This is particularly concerning given Eskom’s recent decision to delay decommissioning three of its oldest coal-fired power plants: Camden, Grootvlei, and Hendrina.

Newly appointed Forestry, Fisheries, and Environment Minister Dr. Dion George has promised extensive consultations on South Africa’s next NDC, which must consider Eskom’s successful appeal of the National Air Quality Officer’s October 2023 decision requiring compliance with minimum emission standards.

Eskom argued that compliance would exacerbate load-shedding by leading to the shutdown of 30,000 MW of capacity, with the cost of retrofitting the plants to meet air pollution limits being a prohibitive R300 billion.

The PCC report also highlights an ongoing “mismatch between commitments and action,” noting that South Africa’s strong climate policy and just transition commitments are not reflected in practical outcomes.

Only 28 of the 95 actions outlined by the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy have been fully implemented or are currently being implemented.

The report points to contradictory public policies and positions, particularly regarding the future of the energy sector.

The report states, “The lack of consensus about the pace of the coal phaseout is delaying the implementation of necessary policy measures to prepare for and enable the transition, such as the draft 2023 Integrated Resources Plan, the Integrated Energy Plan, and the South African Renewable Energy Masterplan.”

This report was released only days after President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the Climate Change Bill, which sets a legal mandate for South Africa’s national climate response and institutionalizes the PCC’s role.

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