Biennial Transparency Report: South Africa’s emissions to peak in 2024, decline to decade low by 2030

SOUTH AFRICA – South Africa’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are set to peak this year, followed by a consistent decline culminating in the lowest emissions of the decade by 2030, according to the draft first Biennial Transparency Report (BTR).

Forestry, Fisheries, and Environment Minister Dr. Dion George published the report on October 7 for public comment.

It provides critical insights into South Africa’s progress in achieving its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement.

As a signatory to the Agreement, South Africa is required to submit BTRs every two years, with the first due by December 31.

The BTR outlines South Africa’s efforts to implement its NDC, including the support needed and received. It comprehensively reviews national circumstances, institutional frameworks, and mitigation policies contributing to emission reductions.

The decade-long decline in emissions

The report forecasts an overall decline in emissions through the decade, with significant reductions projected for 2026, 2029, and 2030.

The energy sector plays a pivotal role in driving South Africa’s emissions reductions, supported by a range of targeted initiatives to enhance efficiency and promote sustainability. 

One such measure is the 12L Tax Incentive, which encourages businesses to invest in energy-efficient technologies and processes.

This program has significantly reduced energy consumption by offering financial incentives, contributing to lower greenhouse gas emissions. 

Similarly, Eskom Integrated Demand Management has been instrumental in optimizing energy use nationwide.

This initiative focuses on reducing peak electricity demand through load-shifting and other demand-side interventions, ensuring a more balanced and sustainable energy supply. 

Complementing these efforts, the Municipal Energy Efficiency and Demand-Side Management program empowers municipalities to adopt energy-saving measures.

This includes retrofitting public infrastructure with energy-efficient technologies like LED lighting and implementing systems to reduce energy wastage.

Collectively, these initiatives have enhanced energy efficiency and significantly reduced emissions, reinforcing the energy sector’s central role in achieving South Africa’s climate goals.

Together, these programmes reduced emissions by five million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) annually from 2010 to 2022.

Additional measures like the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme and the Natural Gas Fuel Switch Programme contributed 16 million tonnes of CO2e, 36% of sector-wide reductions. 

Sector-specific contributions

Transport Sector: Initiatives like the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system and Transnet’s Road-to-Rail programme reduced annual emissions by 300,000 tonnes of CO2e between 2010 and 2022.

The BRT system improved urban public transport, reducing congestion and fuel consumption, while the Road-to-Rail programme shifted freight from road to rail, significantly cutting emissions.

Industrial Sector: Advanced technologies in the industrial processes and product use sector helped reduce nitrous oxide emissions, leading to a 1.3 million tonne annual reduction in CO2e over the same period.

Agriculture and Forestry: Conservation agriculture and grassland restoration initiatives reduced emissions by 2.1 million tonnes of CO2e annually, while afforestation and forest restoration accounted for 54% of total reductions, cutting 31 million tonnes annually.

Progress against targets

South Africa’s total GHG emissions, excluding land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF), stood at 488.32 million tonnes of CO2e in 2021, decreasing to 478.89 million tonnes in 2022.

When LULUCF is included, emissions were significantly lower at 435.83 million tonnes in 2022, underscoring the critical role of land use and forestry in mitigating emissions.

Both sets of figures fall within the country’s mitigation targets for 2021–2025, highlighting progress in managing emissions.

The public is invited to submit comments on the draft BTR within 15 days of its release to the Department of Forestry, Fisheries, and the Environment.

The report underscores South Africa’s commitment to achieving its climate goals and advancing sustainable development.

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