Hormuz chokepoint squeezes 84% of Middle East PE capacity as packaging’s era of cheap supply ends – ICIS, market analysts

GLOBAL – The packaging industry has entered a structural cost reset as persistent disruption across energy markets reshapes traditional supply models, with the Strait of Hormuz, through which 84 percent of Middle East polyethylene export capacity depends, averaging just 10 vessels daily since late February compared to 84 before the conflict.

According to the International Energy Agency, oil flows through the strait averaged about 20 million barrels per day in 2024, accounting for roughly 20 percent of global petroleum consumption.

ICIS reported in March that conflict-related disruption had created disorderly conditions in European polyolefin contracts, with 31 force majeure or sales allocation announcements for chemicals in Asia and the Middle East as of March 13.

Raw Materials Under Siege

The numbers are sobering. ICIS reports that 84 percent of Middle East polyethylene capacity depends on Hormuz for export access, along with large volumes of methanol and ethylene glycol.

The Economic Times has reported shortages across glass, PET, and other packaging materials, noting that most companies hold just 30 to 60 days of inventory now rapidly depleting.

The International Energy Agency confirmed that member countries released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves in March to address supply disruption.

The OECD said in its March 2026 interim outlook that escalation in the Middle East had pushed its G20 inflation projection for 2026 up to 4.0 percent.

How Smart Players Are Responding

Berlin Packaging noted in its Q1 2026 market update that raw materials face pressure from rising energy costs, inflation, and trade disruption.

Smithers industry research states that disruption is reshaping all five major packaging material groups, forcing companies to rethink how they source, produce, and move packaging.

IFCO’s 2026 trends review warns that poor packaging choices now increase exposure to supply chain disruption and regulatory risk.

The Fraunhofer Institute found that switching from single-use cardboard to reusable food packaging can reduce product damage by up to 98 percent.

Looking Ahead: Resilience Over Efficiency

For converters and brand owners, the old playbook of cheapest supply and leanest inventory no longer applies. Regional sourcing, broader supplier networks, simpler pack formats, and better risk visibility are becoming standard business practice.

The most competitive packaging businesses may not be the ones with the cheapest supply chain, but the ones with the most resilient one. In a world where Hormuz can close with little warning, adaptability is the new currency.

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