AZERBAIJAN – The United Nations climate body has released a new set of proposals to address one of the most pressing goals of the COP29 summit: determining how much financial support wealthier nations should provide to poorer ones to combat climate change.
Despite being in the final stages of the summit, delegates are still grappling with critical issues such as defining the annual funding target, deciding who contributes, and determining what qualifies as funding.
The latest negotiating text, released after delays, spans 10 pages but notably leaves the total financial commitment blank, marked with an ‘X.’
This omission reflects the hesitancy of key donor countries, including EU members, who seek greater clarity on the structure and contributors before committing specific amounts.
The 1.5°C target: A grim outlook
As negotiations continue, the internationally agreed-upon target to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels appears increasingly out of reach.
Scientists warn that 2024 will likely surpass this threshold, becoming the hottest year on record. This would mark a symbolic but troubling milestone in the fight against climate change.
“Exceeding 1.5°C is almost unavoidable now,” said Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at Stripe and scientist at Berkeley Earth.
“We’re speeding past the 1.5°C line in an accelerating way until global emissions stop rising.”
Experts highlight that even if all current national pledges are met, the world is still on track for a 2.7°C increase. Such warming would bring catastrophic consequences, including severe heatwaves, flooding, and widespread ecosystem disruptions.
Mixed messages from COP29
Despite the bleak outlook, COP29 discussions have reiterated the importance of striving for ambitious climate action.
António Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, urged leaders to “beat the clock on 1.5°C” while acknowledging the current trajectory as a “masterclass in climate destruction.”
Climate scientists, however, caution that while the 1.5°C target has been an effective rallying point, it may no longer be scientifically achievable without breakthroughs in carbon removal technologies.
“What matters now is reducing emissions as quickly as possible,” said Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist at NASA.
Although the situation appears dire, there are reasons for cautious optimism. Clean energy is advancing rapidly, and peak oil demand is projected by the end of this decade.
Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo noted, “Climate policy today is vastly different from a decade ago, thanks to global agreements like the Paris Accord.”
However, the threat of crossing irreversible climate tipping points looms large. These include the collapse of polar ice sheets, the Amazon turning into a savanna, and carbon releases from melting permafrost—events that could have devastating, long-term impacts.
As Hausfather remarked, “Every tenth of a degree matters. The more we push the climate system away from its historical norms, the closer we get to tipping points where we lose control.”
While COP29 underscores the complexity of global climate negotiations, it also highlights the urgent need for decisive action.
The path forward remains fraught with challenges, but every effort to reduce emissions, however small, contributes to a more sustainable future.
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