Fibre-based food packaging to claim 42% market share by 2045 as barrier innovations reshape industry: UPM

GLOBAL – A new UPM Specialty Materials and Smithers study has forecast fibre-based food packaging to claim the largest market share by 2045, with 71% of 230 surveyed professionals expecting fibre materials to become the most sustainable option.

The research, based on input from more than 230 global packaging professionals across the value chain, projects fibre-based packaging’s share of the global food packaging market to rise from 37 percent today to 42 percent by 2045. 

Advances in barrier coatings are expected to unlock food applications previously dominated by plastics, while 71 percent of respondents anticipate that sustainability will transform from a branding differentiator into a strict government mandate. 

Recycling rates are forecast to climb from 31 percent in 2030 to 37 percent by 2045, though respondents expect landfilling and incineration to persist, particularly in regions with less mature infrastructure.

Industry Consensus on Regulatory Shift and EPR-Driven Material Choices

The study reveals that 88 percent of surveyed professionals expect stricter environmental regulations to fundamentally reshape packaging material decisions, with Extended Producer Responsibility schemes and eco-modulation fees projected to become primary drivers of material selection. 

These policies will reward recyclable, high-performance formats while penalising hard-to-recycle alternatives. 

Ciaran Little, vice president of Smithers, stated that the evidence is clear that the industry will continue to focus on improving recycling rates and regulations, with EPR and eco-modulation directly influencing material choices. 

Ongoing innovation in barrier technologies is opening new applications for fibre-based packaging to compete with plastic alternatives.

Regional Disparities and Future Outlook for Fibre-Based Packaging

Europe is projected to maintain its leadership position in recycling infrastructure and policy, while North America and the Asia-Pacific region face varying regulatory and infrastructure challenges that could affect recycling performance. 

UPM Specialty Materials products and technology director Janne Varvemaa said the company was encouraged to see strong momentum behind fibre-based packaging, driven by regulation, consumer demand and ongoing innovation in barrier technologies, with UPM’s role being to support customers in this transition with high-performance, sustainable solutions that do not compromise on functionality. 

The findings underscore the urgency of accelerating innovation and development globally as fibre-based packaging moves from an alternative to a mainstream packaging solution for food applications. 

While the study reflects industry sentiment rather than official corporate positions, it highlights a clear direction of travel: fibre-based materials are positioned to become the dominant sustainable packaging category by 2045.

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